Friday, April 4, 2008

Don't panic, baseball season isn't even a week old

Who has been a bigger bust to start the season: Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Howard or Matt Holliday?. I have all three in an NL-only league and I can't decide who is the most frustrating. On my mixed-league team I have Justin Morneau, who is hitless. I wish I didn't have any of these players. NOT BECAUSE I think they will continue to stink, but I wish I could trade for them all. There is no way they will continue to be so bad, and I could get them for less than market value. Beside the first week of the NFL season, fantasy players tend to overreact to the first week of the baseball season more than any other part of the season. A 1-for-12 start makes people panic more than going 1-for-12 in June. You should look for players who are struggling early and make a play for them. If you have a player who is not performing, wait it out - at least for now.

As for basketball, my team has taken a dive. The loss of Andrew Bynum hurt my field oal percent more than I anticipated and injuries to Shawn Marion and Dirk Nowitzki didn't help. I need field goal percentage and assists if I am going to make a run into the top spot. Got any suggestions for me to pick up? I recently added Rasho Nesterovic and Joakim Noah but I am afraid it might be too little too late.

Saturday, February 16, 2008

NBA fantasy All-Stars

It's the All-Star break so it is time to name a fantasy All-Star team for each conference.

My Eastern Conference fantasy starters:
Jose Calderon, PG, Toronto - He shoot 54 percent from the field, 47 percent from 3-point range (he's made 58) and his assist-to-turnover ratio of 5.5 is off the charts.

Paul Pierce, SG, Boston - His assists are up and his turnovers are down from last year and he is scoring at the same clip on about three less shots per game.

Shawn Marion, SF, Miami - Most of his statistics were established when he played for the Suns in the West, but he is easily the best small forward in fantasy - not LeBron James - in either conference. His 104 steals set him apart.

Josh Smith, PF, Atlanta - He has 154 blocks, 91 steals and 181 assists. And in most fantasy leagues he is eligible at SF, PF and SG.

Chris Bosh, C, Toronto - To get 1,034 points and 102 assists out of a center at All-Star break is stellar.

Western Conference

Chris Paul, PG, New Orleans - He gets the start over Phoenix's Steve Nash because of his 126 steals.

Kobe Bryant, SG, L.A. Lakers - Denver's Allen Iverson is the only shooting guard who is close to Bryant in scoring and Bryant has a higher field-goal percentage, free throw percentage and 3-point percentage.

Rudy Gay, SF, Memphis - Gay barely beats Denver's Carmelo Anthony. He's made 92 3s compared to Anthony's 35 and he has more steals and blocks. Anthony has more points and rebounds - but I usually try to get points from my guards and rebounds from power forwards and centers.

Carlos Boozer, PF, Utah - Boozer gets the call over Dallas' Dirk Nowitzki because he shoots a higher percent from the field, he isn't shooting 29 percent from the 3-point line and he can play center.

Yao Ming, C, Houston - Yao is the best center in fantasy. Phoenix's Amare Stoudemire has closed the gap by improving his free-throw shooting, but Yao's 51 percent from the floor and 84 percent from the free-throw line make him the top fantasy center.

EASTERN CONFERENCE RESERVES
Chauncey Billups, G, Detroit, Kevin Garnett, F, Boston (his injury kept him out of my starting lineup), LeBron James, F, Cleveland, Gerald Wallace, F, Charlotte, Antawn Jamison, F, Washington, Danny Granger, F, Indiana, Jason Kidd, G, New Jersey, Rasheed Wallace, F-C, Detroit

WESTERN CONFERENCE RESERVES
Carmelo Anthony, F, Denver, Allen Iverson, G, Denver, Steve Nash, G, Phoenix, Dirk Nowitzki, F, Dallas, Amare Stoudemire, F-C, Phoenix, Baron Davis, G, Golden State, Al Jefferson, F, Minnesota, Manu Ginobili, G, San Antonio

MOST NOTABLE SNUB
Dwight Howard, C, Orlando - Depending on the size of your league, Howard is not a good fantasy player. He gets so many free-throw attempts and he shoots 59.5 percent from the line, that he will assure you a last-place finish in that category. You can't afford to finish last if you have more than 10 teams in your league.

Friday, February 8, 2008

Shaq trade has little impact in fantasy

The trade that sent Shaquille O'Neal to Phoenix for Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks has little fantasy impact. I have never been a fan of Shaq in fantasy sports because of his free-throw shooting and Marion will continue to be a stud. His points and rebounds might go up slightly and his percentages might drop a bit, but nothing to take Marion out of the top five in fantasy. Banks could be a long-term option if Jason Williams is traded, but as of today Banks has no fantasy value. Mark Blount and Boris Diaw might be the big winners of the trade. Blount will be Miami's starting center the rest of the way. He will shoot a high percentage and get 12-15 points per game. Diaw will be called upon more by the Suns with O'Neal sidelined, but Diaw hasn't been able to be consistent all season. If he is center eligible in your league, he is worth a look.


The thought that Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire will take a fantasy hit because of Shaq is crazy talk. The theory is that the Suns will play more of a half-court style and the transition points will go away for Nash and Stoudemire. Doesn't anyone remember the Showtime Lakers? An aging Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was the center and it didn't slow them down. Shaq won't slow the Suns. At least not during the regular season.


SCANNING THE WAIVER WIRE

If you are looking to add a guard/forward who will help your field goal percent, you might want to consider Orlando's Maurice Evans. He is shooting 62 percent in his past four games and he has made eight 3s over that span.


If your league awards points for assist-to-turnover ratio, you might want to look at Indiana's Travis Diener. He has 23 assists and three turnovers in his past four games.

Friday, February 1, 2008

Impact of the Gasol trade

With the Memphis Grizzlies trading Pau Gasol to the Lakers for Kwame Brown there is a fantasy impact.


Memphis' Hakim Warrick will be the player who I think benefits the most, not Brown or Darko Milicic. He shoots 50 percent from the field, 70 percent from the line and his rebounds and blocks should increase. He turns the ball over a lot, but he should be picked up ASAP in any fantasy league.


For the Lakers, I really wonder how this deal is going to alter the fantasy value of Lamar Odom and Luke Walton. Gasol will fill in for Brown for the time being, but when Andrew Bynum returns, one of the two small forwards is going to take a huge cut in minutes played. I wonder if Odom will be able to play with Bynum, Gasol and Kobe Bryant at the same time.



  • In other recent moves, Charlotte's Earl Boykins will help your free-throw percentage and assist-to-turnover ratio and he won't kill your 3-point percentage.



  • I would avoid Golden State's Chris Webber and I want to see whose minutes are going to get cut. For as good as Monta Ellis has been, he was the guy who fell out of the rotation last year in the playoffs.



  • Damon Stoudamire, who will reportedly join the Spurs, could help your team with assists and 3s made with Tony Parker out but he isn't more than a player to fill the gaps.

Saturday, January 26, 2008

With a week to go before the Super Bowl

What have we learned about next season in fantasy football so far in the playoffs:

1. Is LaDainian Tomlinson still the top running back?

2. Is Eli Manning going to be a top quarterback?

3. Will Laurence Maroney be a bigger part of the Patriots offense next season?

4. Have the Redskins' coaching moves hurt or helped the value of Clinton Portis?

5. Will Ryan Grant be a late first-round pick or early second-rounder?



Answers

1. Yes. I was leaning toward Minnesota's Adrian Peterson, but I have a feeling Tomlinson will come back stronger after basically having to watch two playoff games.



2. No. The Giants are still a run-first team. If you are in a league that hurts you if your quarterback throws interceptions, Manning's value goes up - but he still isn't a top eight quarterback.



3. I think we have to wait and see what the Patriots do in free agency. There is not doubt he has the talent to be a top fantasy running back ... the question is will he get the opportunity to carry the load.



4. Portis was one of the biggest surprises last season. Many thought, myself included, that Ladell Betts would vulture some of Portis' carries. Portis finished as a top 10 running back.



5. Yes. Of course this is assuming that Brett Favre doesn't retire. Grant runs hard and seems to have a nose for the end zone.



FANTASY BASKETBALL

If you were an Andrew Bynum owner, like me, and your team has struggled with field goal percentage, blocks and rebounding since Bynum was hurt; here are some centers who are likely available in your league that you might want to consider:



Sean Williams, NJ: He shoots a high percentage and gets blocks. His turnovers might hurt you, but you are likely just looking to plug the holes while Bynum is out.



Mark Blount, Miami: He scores and shoots a high percentage, but he doesn't rebound well. With Shaquille O'Neal out, Blount will continue to play big minutes.



Mikki Moore, Sacramento: He rebounds well, but that is about it.



Another player you might want to keep your eye on is rookie Thaddeus Young in Philadelphia. He was inserted into the 76ers' starting lineup Saturday and he gets a lot of steals.



Time to start crunching numbers for baseball.

Thursday, January 3, 2008

Playoff fantasy football and basketball

Every year my friends and I do a playoff fantasy draft. The key is to get as many players on teams that win playoff games as possible. I got the fourth pick and I think Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and the Patriots' defense were gone before I picked. I probably made a huge mistake, but I took LaDainian Tomlinson instead of Peyton Manning or Tony Romo. I pretty much tied my fate to the Chargers. Later in the draft I got Philip Rivers, San Diego's defense and Chris Chambers. My thinking was that if the Chargers can beat the Titans and upset the Colts, I will get as many games out of San Diego players as the people with the Patriots will get if New England advances to the Super Bowl because of the wild card. I could have gone with Dallas players, but Terrell Owens' ankle injury scared me away.


What do you think of this strategy?


As for basketball, my team is holding strong in second but if Nazr Mohammed is coming off the bench for the Bobcats, one of the players I picked up and thought would be a steal, is average at best. Also, Memphis' Juan Carlos Navarro has not been good for me anymore since the return on Pau Gasol. Any suggestions for any basketball players who might be on waivers?

Sunday, November 25, 2007

The next Adrian Peterson

INJURY NOTES

Adrian Peterson looks like he will take over in Chicago after Cedric Benson suffered an injury and was carted off the field. Benson has to be considered a fantasy bust and Peterson should at least put up similar numbers to Benson.

D.J. Hackett was hurt for Seattle and Nate Burleson should again be a No. 3 receiver in fantasy. If you get points for return yards, Burleson could be a weak No. 2.

QB PROBLEMS

If you have Vince Young and Eli Manning do you still play them? I have Manning, but thankfully the league I have him in it does not hurt you if your quarterback throws an interception. I still play him every week. Young was brutal against Washington and I wouldn't play him. He isn't running like he did last year.

THURSDAY LINEUPS

My teams are so beat up, the Thursday lineups are killing me in one of my leagues. Why do some leagues still make you put in your roster before the first game? Haven't we evolved to where we only need our Thursday players in on Thursday? I am going to need to talk to my commish! I never had a problem last year because my team was healthy, but now I hate it. Are you in any leagues that make you put in your entire lineup early?

BASKETBALL

I was able to get Shawn Marion, but I had to give up Daniel Gibson and Paul Pierce to get him. Do you think I gave up too much? We count 3-pointers made and 3-point percentage. I think I might have given up too much.